Top topics from March 

1. Tariffs - Market volatility
2. Tariffs - Bond vigilantes
3. Tariffs - Talking the talk vs. Walking the walk
4. Artificial intelligence - buzz has perhaps peaked
5. Crypto unshackled

Top trend

Volatility in the markets sparked by tariffs has been so severe that for the first time in a looooooooong time, traders are going ‘risk-off’ – which means they are essentially sitting on the sidelines or shifting to cash. This includes hedge funds, which is downright shocking. Ultimately, the bond vigilantes stepped to the fore and put enough pressure on the Trump administration to bring about a pause/reduction in most tariffs.

What to watch for: The world is about to learn that ‘saying’ you are imposing tariffs is not the same thing as actually … you know … ‘collecting’ tariffs. The logistics are a nightmare. Further uncertainty will hit the markets when people realize the US government does not have the Customs staff or payment infrastructure in place to actually collect hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs. 

Additional trends

1. US regulators have announced they will NOT prosecute cryptocurrency fraud. This is big – but not unexpected – news for the digital asset space. With no sheriff in town, the Wild West is about to get wilder.
2. The artificial intelligence bubble hasn’t popped, but it might have reached its peak size. Microsoft has realized it might not need (or can’t build fast enough) all the data center capacity it previously touted. Expect other AI market participants to come to the same realization.
3. 24/7 will continue to be a hot topic for some of our largest partners – as well as exchanges and risk management providers. It’s gonna happen, but thankfully most firms realize the need to slow-walk this evolution.