As school districts navigate the post-ESSER funding era, shifting state mandates, and a changing economic environment, the K–12 education technology sector is experiencing a significant recalibration.
During the recent Tech & Learning’s EdExec Summit panel titled “State of the Education Market: What to Expect in 2026 and Beyond,” industry leaders gathered to share critical perspectives on market trends, product adoption, renewals, and capital investment.
The panel featured Todd Brekhus (Chief Product Officer at Renaissance), Rohan Wadhwa (Co-Founder of Lumos Capital Group), and Chad Johnson (Managing Director at Cherry Tree). Together, they outlined how companies and district leaders are adapting to new financial realities, evolving standards, and the integration of emerging technologies.
Market Resets: Moving Beyond the Supplemental Boom
The immediate aftermath of pandemic-era emergency funding triggered widespread shifts in district spending habits. While core instruction and assessment remain essential priorities, standalone supplemental tools are facing unprecedented churn.
Todd Brekhus highlighted the contrast between foundational platforms and standalone apps:
“I think we're really in trouble in the supplemental space, of what is traditionally known as what supplements EdTech and what supplements education... We are in a good place where we're a little bit better than flat".
Todd Brekhus
Rohan Wadhwa contextualized this contraction by describing a fundamental reset in customer expectations. Using an apartment-moving analogy, Wadhwa illustrated how districts evaluated their digital toolkits once stimulus dollars expired:
“When you move apartments, you realize what you don't need anymore. Now we find ourselves in the new apartment and we start to say, 'Hey, does this couch really fit here?' There are real questions on what is really driving outcomes, what is really saving time, what is really improving the day-to-day.”
Rohan Wadhwa
From an investment banking standpoint, Chad Johnson noted that while renewal pressures were intense in recent years, districts are now exhibiting sharper, albeit unpredictable, budgetary decision-making.
“The two years prior were when people were really throwing sweaters out. Renewals were really hard, especially in supplemental,” Johnson recalled. “This year was better, but there were a number of surprises right around the end of the budget cycle where people were being told, ‘we told you we were going to go with your solution, but actually it got cut.’”
Chad Johnson
Product Evolution: Integration, Standards, and Professional Learning
To combat churn and align with district priorities, EdTech providers are shifting away from isolated “cool app” toward deeply integrated ecosystems tied directly to High-Quality Instructional Materials (HQIM) and state standards.
Brekhus pointed to Nearpod—a widely popular tool with over five million global teacher users—as an example of how supplemental products must evolve:
"People have said, ‘Oh gosh, I can't afford these tools’. Nearpod has taken a more brutal hit and also it's a freemium product... [However, by embedding Nearpod directly into Renaissance's assessment and instructional workflows, adoption reversed course] “...Bringing it closer to assessment and bringing it closer to instruction, it's actually taking off.”
Todd Brekhus
Brekhus emphasized that Renaissance is actively establishing partnerships with dozens of core curriculum providers rather than attempting to build core programs in-house.
“Our board said we're not going to be a core company. Our objective is to partner and connect to core because we have such strong data and assessment. We should make that more relevant to core.”
Todd Brekhus
Wadhwa emphasized that driving product usage now requires vendors to mandate implementation and professional development upfront.
“For every customer, we need to have a session early on implementation and professional learning. We're now saying, ‘We'll do PD for free. You cannot buy the product unless you have that as part of it upfront.’”
Rohan Wadhwa
Furthermore, state-level curriculum adoptions—such as Texas’s Bluebonnet initiative and California’s literacy reviews—are raising the bar for standards alignment.
Brekhus noted:
“The supplemental bar has increased. Explicitly showing how the wording of that standard relates to that state test really matters.”
Todd Brekhus
M&A and Capital Markets: The Tourists Have Left
In capital markets, deal volume across K–12 technology has slowed compared to the record-breaking valuations seen between 2018 and 2022.
Johnson explained the headwinds currently affecting M&A activity.
“In K-12 specifically, it's down. It's not at zero, but there's definitely less activity going on,” he observed. “Lenders and limited partners are saying, ‘we don't want you investing in K-12 right now, we just see it as a really difficult market.’ But investing in a down market actually produces better returns. Now is the time to be very thoughtful.”
Chad Johnson
Johnson highlighted that capital is still actively flowing into high-moat sectors like core curriculum, STEM, Career and Technical Education (CTE), and platforms supporting Open Educational Resources (OER) like Florida’s UFLI program.
Wadhwa reassured the audience that while speculative investors have exited, underlying demand for quality education technology remains robust:
“In my world, the tourists have sort of left the market. But if you look at the actual spend in innovation, in technology, in education, that has gone up every year.”
Rohan Wadhwa
Addressing the rise of Artificial Intelligence, Wadhwa added that districts are seeking established, trustworthy partners rather than unproven point solutions.
“I don't think the average district is going to say, ‘Oh, let's take a flyer on this new solution.’ They're going to rely on a company that's had credibility and trust in the segment for a number of years.”
Rohan Wadhwa
Looking Ahead
As the education market matures through 2026 and beyond, the consensus among industry leaders is clear: long-term success belongs to organizations that deliver measurable learning outcomes, integrate seamlessly into core district workflows, and serve as authentic, long-term partners to educators.
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